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Concerns, Challenges, and Directions of Development for the Issue of Representing Uncertainty in Risk Assessment
Author(s) -
Flage Roger,
Aven Terje,
Zio Enrico,
Baraldi Piero
Publication year - 2014
Publication title -
risk analysis
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.972
H-Index - 130
eISSN - 1539-6924
pISSN - 0272-4332
DOI - 10.1111/risa.12247
Subject(s) - risk analysis (engineering) , probabilistic logic , risk assessment , uncertainty quantification , probabilistic risk assessment , lead (geology) , position (finance) , computer science , risk management , management science , engineering , artificial intelligence , business , computer security , machine learning , finance , geomorphology , geology
In the analysis of the risk associated to rare events that may lead to catastrophic consequences with large uncertainty, it is questionable that the knowledge and information available for the analysis can be reflected properly by probabilities. Approaches other than purely probabilistic have been suggested, for example, using interval probabilities, possibilistic measures, or qualitative methods. In this article, we look into the problem and identify a number of issues that are foundational for its treatment. The foundational issues addressed reflect on the position that “probability is perfect” and take into open consideration the need for an extended framework for risk assessment that reflects the separation that practically exists between analyst and decisionmaker.