Winning with a Bad Economy

How can an incumbent win reelection with a bad economy, as B arack O bama did in 2012, defying many forecasts? We focus on the attribution of responsibility at times of severe economic change. When the national economy goes into recession before a new administration takes office, it is highly likely that the old one bears the brunt of responsibility. Using the A merican N ational E lection Studies W inter 2012 survey, we find that O bama escaped much of the punishment for the poor economic conditions while his predecessor, under whom the economic collapse began, was blamed far more heavily. Moreover, bad conditions notwithstanding, O bama was also credited for an improving economy. It was a combination of blame and credit that greatly helped O bama win reelection with a bad economy.