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Polls and Elections : The N ew D eal R ealignment in Real Time
Author(s) -
Norpoth Helmut,
Sidman Andrew H.,
Suong Clara H.
Publication year - 2013
Publication title -
presidential studies quarterly
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.337
H-Index - 5
eISSN - 1741-5705
pISSN - 0360-4918
DOI - 10.1111/psq.12007
Subject(s) - prosperity , political science , identification (biology) , political economy , exploit , order (exchange) , public administration , law , sociology , economics , computer security , computer science , botany , finance , biology
Right after the 1936 election the G allup P oll began probing party identification. From then on until 1952, when the N ational E lection S tudies entered the field, nearly 200 surveys produced measurements of partisanship in the American electorate. We exploit this largely unexplored data set to examine the partisan transformation commonly called the N ew D eal R ealignment in real time. It turns out that it was not until the late 1940s that the D emocratic P arty secured an enduring hold on the American electorate. The N ew D eal and the D epression had less to do with this change than did W orld W ar II and the postwar prosperity. The lead cohort of the D emocratic surge in party identification was the generation that came of age during the 1940s, not the 1930s. The findings suggest that a historic crisis or a new policy program may not be enough to realign partisanship in the electorate but that it takes the success of the ascendant party in mastering historic crises.