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Judgmental Forecasting: Cognitive Reflection and Decision Speed
Author(s) -
Moritz Brent,
Siemsen Enno,
Kremer Mirko
Publication year - 2014
Publication title -
production and operations management
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 3.279
H-Index - 110
eISSN - 1937-5956
pISSN - 1059-1478
DOI - 10.1111/poms.12105
Subject(s) - deliberation , affect (linguistics) , reflection (computer programming) , cognition , computer science , test (biology) , decision process , balance (ability) , cognitive psychology , psychology , operations research , economics , management science , political science , paleontology , communication , neuroscience , politics , law , biology , programming language , engineering
This research analyzes how individual differences affect performance in judgmental time‐series forecasting. Decision makers with the ability to balance intuitive judgment with cognitive deliberation, as measured by the cognitive reflection test, tend to have lower forecast errors. This relationship holds when controlling for intelligence. Furthermore, forecast errors increase for very fast or very slow decisions. We provide evidence that forecast performance can be improved by manipulating decision speed.