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The Fallacy of Calibrationism
Author(s) -
Isaacs Yoaav
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
philosophy and phenomenological research
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.7
H-Index - 39
eISSN - 1933-1592
pISSN - 0031-8205
DOI - 10.1111/phpr.12640
Subject(s) - credence , fallacy , mistake , epistemology , philosophy , relation (database) , probabilistic logic , mathematical economics , positive economics , economics , mathematics , computer science , law , political science , statistics , database
Calibrationism is an intuitively plausible thesis about the relation between rational credence and expected reliability. But calibrationism is misguided. It relies on the base‐rate fallacy, a classic mistake in probabilistic epistemology. Thus while calibrationism is intuitive, it cannot be correct.