Jasmine Does Not Bloom in P yongyang: The Persistent Non‐transition in N orth K orea

At the beginning of 2011, the world was shaken by an “earthquake” which struck the M iddle E ast and A frican regions. Following the A rab S pring or J asmine R evolution, many pundits stated that N orth K orea could be the next to be affected by this wind of change, and the N orth K orean dictatorial leadership could collapse soon. This assumption acquired further validity soon after K im Jong‐il 's death. This paper draws on the democratic transition and consolidation literature that has grown considerably in the last decades. According to this literature, a few factors facilitate and promote democratization – most prominently, an elite split between hardliners and softliners; the emergence of civil society and its pro‐democracy movement; and a certain degree of international pressure. Through an analysis of these factors, this paper shows why N orth K orea is “resistant to change” and will not follow in the M iddle E ast's footsteps. We argue that the main reason for the non‐transition in N orth K orea is the absence of the conditions that have been identified in the democratization literature as critical factors promoting democratic transition.