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The Challenges Posed by Demographic Change in sub‐Saharan Africa: A Concise Overview
Author(s) -
Cleland John,
Machiyama Kazuyo
Publication year - 2017
Publication title -
population and development review
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.836
H-Index - 96
eISSN - 1728-4457
pISSN - 0098-7921
DOI - 10.1111/padr.170
Subject(s) - population growth , population , development economics , commodity , geography , demographic change , mainland , demographic transition , economic growth , political science , economics , demography , fertility , sociology , archaeology , market economy
The aim of this paper is to assess the implications of demographic change between 2015 and 2050 for progress in sub-Saharan Africa. Because of the slow fertility decline, the dominant demographic force will be continued growth in numbers of births, the school age and the working age population. The projected change in the dependency ratio will likely be too modest to act as a major influence on prospects. Population growth threatens human capital formation, food security, urban living conditions, and the creation of jobs and livelihoods to match the large increase in the labour force. None of these challenges represents insuperable barriers to progress but, considered jointly, they underscore the magnitude of the task ahead. It is likely that some states will prosper but that others will remain mired in poverty and hunger, due to Malthusian factors and poor governance. Mass migration within the continent should be anticipated. (word count 148)