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Long‐term relationships between electricity and oil, gas and coal future prices—evidence from N ordic countries, C ontinental E urope and the U nited K ingdom
Author(s) -
Frydenberg Stein,
Onochie Joseph I.,
Westgaard Sjur,
Midtsund Nora,
Ueland Hanna
Publication year - 2014
Publication title -
opec energy review
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 1753-0237
pISSN - 1753-0229
DOI - 10.1111/opec.12025
Subject(s) - futures contract , cointegration , electricity , economics , coal , crude oil , mean reversion , econometrics , commodity , financial economics , chemistry , market economy , engineering , petroleum engineering , organic chemistry , electrical engineering
This paper investigates the relationship between futures prices of electricity, on the one hand and crude oil, natural gas and coal on the other hand, in the U nited K ingdom, G erman and N ordic energy markets. Energy traders and market participants use statistical models in their trading activities. We seek to establish robust cointegration based models as decision tools for energy commodity spread trading. We look at three different markets with different input mixtures, for electricity generation. Using daily futures data from period 2006 to 2012, we find cointegration between UK electricity prices and C oal and G as, and between N ordic electricity prices and C oal. The spread between G erman electricity prices and G as, O il and C oal prices are also stationary. The consequence of this finding could be a possible trading strategy which involves buying electricity futures and selling gas or coal when the spread is above the mean and reversing the strategy when the spread is below the mean. The suggested strategy assumes a reversion to the mean, which we show takes some time, as displayed by the slow speed of adjustment.