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The Government Spending Multiplier at the Zero Lower Bound: Evidence from the United States
Author(s) -
Di Serio Mario,
Fragetta Matteo,
Gasteiger Emanuel
Publication year - 2020
Publication title -
oxford bulletin of economics and statistics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.131
H-Index - 73
eISSN - 1468-0084
pISSN - 0305-9049
DOI - 10.1111/obes.12382
Subject(s) - zero lower bound , economics , government spending , recession , fiscal multiplier , business cycle , multiplier (economics) , robustness (evolution) , fiscal policy , nominal interest rate , econometrics , vector autoregression , monetary policy , macroeconomics , monetary economics , real interest rate , welfare , biochemistry , chemistry , gene , market economy
We estimate state‐dependent government spending multipliers for the United States. We use a factor‐augmented interacted vector autoregression (FAIVAR) model. This allows us to capture the time‐varying monetary policy characteristics including the recent zero interest rate lower bound (ZLB) state, to account for the state of the business cycle and to address the limited information problem typically inherent in VARs. We identify government spending shocks by sign restrictions and use a government spending growth forecast series to account for the effects of anticipated fiscal policy. In our baseline specification, we find that government spending multipliers in a recession range from 3.56 to 3.79 at the ZLB. Away from the ZLB, multipliers in recessions range from 2.31 to 3.05. Several robustness analyses confirm that multipliers are higher, when the interest rate is lower and that multipliers in recessions exceed multipliers in expansions. Our results are consistent with theories that predict larger multipliers at the ZLB.