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Data‐Driven Identification Constraints for DSGE Models
Author(s) -
Lanne Markku,
Luoto Jani
Publication year - 2018
Publication title -
oxford bulletin of economics and statistics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.131
H-Index - 73
eISSN - 1468-0084
pISSN - 0305-9049
DOI - 10.1111/obes.12217
Subject(s) - dynamic stochastic general equilibrium , computer science , identification (biology) , bayes' theorem , redundancy (engineering) , estimation theory , mathematical optimization , bayesian probability , mathematics , algorithm , artificial intelligence , economics , monetary policy , botany , monetary economics , biology , operating system
We propose imposing data‐driven identification constraints to alleviate the multimodality problem arising in the estimation of poorly identified dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models under non‐informative prior distributions. We also devise an iterative procedure based on the posterior density of the parameters for finding these constraints. An empirical application to the Smets and Wouters ([Smets, F., 2007]) model demonstrates the properties of the estimation method, and shows how the problem of multimodal posterior distributions caused by parameter redundancy is eliminated by identification constraints. Out‐of‐sample forecast comparisons as well as Bayes factors lend support to the constrained model.