Premium
Vulnerability of pastoral farming in H awke's B ay to future climate change: Development of a pre‐screening (bottom‐up) methodology
Author(s) -
Fowler Anthony M.,
Aiken Simon,
Maree Kim
Publication year - 2013
Publication title -
new zealand geographer
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.335
H-Index - 25
eISSN - 1745-7939
pISSN - 0028-8144
DOI - 10.1111/nzg.12015
Subject(s) - context (archaeology) , pasture , vulnerability (computing) , climate change , environmental science , bay , agriculture , environmental resource management , geography , computer science , ecology , forestry , biology , computer security , archaeology
Although future climate change will significantly affect N ew Z ealand's climate, how regional climates will be changed remains highly uncertain. As a consequence, pre‐screening sensitivity analysis is recommended for climate‐sensitive activities. A ‘bottom‐up’ approach intended to serve this purpose in the context of non‐irrigated pasture is developed and demonstrated in the Hawke's Bay context. This is achieved using a simple daily water balance model to simulate near‐surface hydrological processes and empirical relationships between transpiration and pasture dry matter production. The H awke's Bay case study indicates that the methodology has merit and is worthwhile pursuing nationally (with refinements).