Vulnerability of pastoral farming in H awke's B ay to future climate change: Development of a pre‐screening (bottom‐up) methodology

Although future climate change will significantly affect N ew Z ealand's climate, how regional climates will be changed remains highly uncertain. As a consequence, pre‐screening sensitivity analysis is recommended for climate‐sensitive activities. A ‘bottom‐up’ approach intended to serve this purpose in the context of non‐irrigated pasture is developed and demonstrated in the Hawke's Bay context. This is achieved using a simple daily water balance model to simulate near‐surface hydrological processes and empirical relationships between transpiration and pasture dry matter production. The H awke's Bay case study indicates that the methodology has merit and is worthwhile pursuing nationally (with refinements).