Premium
Changes in South American hydroclimate under projected Amazonian deforestation
Author(s) -
EirasBarca Jorge,
Dominguez Francina,
Yang Zhao,
Chug Divyansh,
Nieto Raquel,
Gimeno Luis,
MiguezMacho Gonzalo
Publication year - 2020
Publication title -
annals of the new york academy of sciences
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.712
H-Index - 248
eISSN - 1749-6632
pISSN - 0077-8923
DOI - 10.1111/nyas.14364
Subject(s) - amazonian , deforestation (computer science) , environmental science , weather research and forecasting model , evapotranspiration , amazon rainforest , precipitation , albedo (alchemy) , atmospheric sciences , water cycle , moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer , climatology , dry season , geography , satellite , geology , meteorology , art , ecology , aerospace engineering , performance art , computer science , art history , engineering , biology , programming language , cartography
Continued deforestation in the Amazon forest can alter the subsurface/surface and atmospheric branches of the hydrologic cycle. The sign and magnitude of these changes depend on the complex interactions between the water, energy, and momentum budgets. To understand these changes, we use the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model with improved representation of groundwater dynamics and the added feature of Amazonian moisture tracers. The control simulation uses moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) based observations of land use, and the deforestation simulations use a “business‐as‐usual” scenario projected for 2040–2050. Our results show that deforestation leads to changes that are seasonally very different. During the dry season, deforestation results in increased albedo and less available net radiation. This change, together with reduced leaf area, results in decreased evapotranspiration (ET), less atmospheric moisture of Amazonian origin, and an increase in temperature. However, we find no changes in precipitation over the basin. Conversely, during the wet season, surface winds increase significantly due to decreased surface roughness. Vapor transport increases throughout the deforested region and leads to an increase in easterly moisture export, and significant decrease in precipitation within the deforested regions of Eastern Amazon. Contrary to expectations, the moisture tracers in WRF show no evidence that precipitation decreases are due to recycling or changes in stability.