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Projected changes in flooding: a continental U.S. perspective
Author(s) -
Villarini Gabriele,
Zhang Wei
Publication year - 2020
Publication title -
annals of the new york academy of sciences
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.712
H-Index - 248
eISSN - 1749-6632
pISSN - 0077-8923
DOI - 10.1111/nyas.14359
Subject(s) - flooding (psychology) , climatology , surface runoff , environmental science , coupled model intercomparison project , proxy (statistics) , spring (device) , climate change , climate model , geography , physical geography , oceanography , geology , ecology , mechanical engineering , psychology , machine learning , computer science , engineering , psychotherapist , biology
Our study focuses on the projected changes in annual and seasonal maximum daily runoff (used as a proxy for flooding) across the continental United States based on outputs from eight global climate models (GCMs) from the Sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Analyses performed at the regional scale indicate that the GCMs are generally able to reproduce the observed changes in runoff extremes, especially at the seasonal scale, with no single model that outperforms the others across the different seasons and regions. Overall, annual maximum daily runoff is projected to increase during the 21st century, especially in large areas of the southeastern United States and Pacific Northwest, and to decrease in the Rocky Mountains and the northern Great Plains. The largest changes in extremes are projected to be in winter and spring, with a more muted signal for summer and fall.