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Hydrological cycle changes under global warming and their effects on multiscale climate variability
Author(s) -
Ma Jian,
Zhou Lei,
Foltz Gregory R.,
Qu Xia,
Ying Jun,
Tokinaga Hiroki,
Mechoso Carlos R.,
Li Jinbao,
Gu Xingyu
Publication year - 2020
Publication title -
annals of the new york academy of sciences
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.712
H-Index - 248
eISSN - 1749-6632
pISSN - 0077-8923
DOI - 10.1111/nyas.14335
Subject(s) - orography , environmental science , climatology , water cycle , climate change , global warming , greenhouse gas , climate model , monsoon , atmospheric sciences , climate sensitivity , atmospheric circulation , precipitation , geology , meteorology , oceanography , geography , ecology , biology
Despite a globally uniform increase in the concentrations of emitted greenhouse gases, radiatively forced surface warming can have significant spatial variations. These define warming patterns that depend on preexisting climate states and through atmospheric and oceanic dynamics can drive changes of the hydrological cycle with global‐scale feedbacks. Our study reviews research progress on the hydrological cycle changes and their effects on multiscale climate variability. Overall, interannual variability is expected to become stronger in the Pacific and Indian Oceans and weaker in the Atlantic. Global monsoon rainfall is projected to increase and the wet season to lengthen despite a slowdown of atmospheric circulation. Strong variations among monsoon regions are likely to emerge, depending on surface conditions such as orography and land–sea contrast. Interdecadal climate variability is expected to modulate the globally averaged surface temperature change with pronounced anomalies in the polar and equatorial regions, leading to prolonged periods of enhanced or reduced warming. It is emphasized that advanced global observations, regional simulations, and process‐level investigations are essential for improvements in understanding, predicting, and projecting the modes of climate variability, monsoon sensitivity, and energetic fluctuations in a warming climate.