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Evolutionary potential of upper thermal tolerance: biogeographic patterns and expectations under climate change
Author(s) -
Diamond Sarah E.
Publication year - 2017
Publication title -
annals of the new york academy of sciences
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.712
H-Index - 248
eISSN - 1749-6632
pISSN - 0077-8923
DOI - 10.1111/nyas.13223
Subject(s) - heritability , variation (astronomy) , climate change , biology , natural selection , adaptation (eye) , environmental change , selection (genetic algorithm) , ecology , quantitative genetics , genetic variation , evolutionary biology , genetics , computer science , physics , artificial intelligence , neuroscience , astrophysics , gene
How will organisms respond to climate change? The rapid changes in global climate are expected to impose strong directional selection on fitness‐related traits. A major open question then is the potential for adaptive evolutionary change under these shifting climates. At the most basic level, evolutionary change requires the presence of heritable variation and natural selection. Because organismal tolerances of high temperature place an upper bound on responding to temperature change, there has been a surge of research effort on the evolutionary potential of upper thermal tolerance traits. Here, I review the available evidence on heritable variation in upper thermal tolerance traits, adopting a biogeographic perspective to understand how heritability of tolerance varies across space. Specifically, I use meta‐analytical models to explore the relationship between upper thermal tolerance heritability and environmental variability in temperature. I also explore how variation in the methods used to obtain these thermal tolerance heritabilities influences the estimation of heritable variation in tolerance. I conclude by discussing the implications of a positive relationship between thermal tolerance heritability and environmental variability in temperature and how this might influence responses to future changes in climate.