Open AccessComparing contingency fire containment strategies using simulated random scenarios
Author(s) -
Wei Yu,
Thompson Matthew P.,
Belval Erin,
Gan Benjamin,
Calkin David E.,
O'Connor Christopher D.
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
natural resource modeling
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.28
H-Index - 32
eISSN - 1939-7445
pISSN - 0890-8575
DOI - 10.1111/nrm.12295
Subject(s) - contingency plan , contingency , containment (computer programming) , plan (archaeology) , resource (disambiguation) , contingency management , operations research , computer science , contingency table , engineering , risk analysis (engineering) , business , computer security , geography , machine learning , psychology , computer network , philosophy , linguistics , intervention (counseling) , archaeology , psychiatry , programming language
Contingency firelines can be used to back up primary lines to increase probability of fire containment, decrease fire losses, and improve firefighter safety. In this study, we classify firelines into primary, contingency, and response lines. We design a modeling process to iteratively implement a mixed integer programming model to evaluate contingency strategies under randomly generated fireline breaching scenarios. Our objectives include: (1) gaining conceptual understanding of the effectiveness of using contingency containers in a fireline network, and (2) suggesting future data collection and model improvement directions to support contingency strategy planning. We evaluate the effectiveness of several model generated containment strategies: only responding to observed primary line breaches, being proactive by implementing a system‐level contingency plan, or constructing contingency lines to back up a proportion of a primary container. Data from the Ferguson Fire in California are used to derive a set of hypothetical test cases with different fireline breaching risks to support sensitivity analysis. For comparison, we also test a contingency plan inspired by the Ferguson Fire operation. Analyses suggest that a contingency plan will provide the greatest benefit when fireline breaching risk is high. This study also suggests there are significant data and knowledge gaps that must be addressed to make the model suitable for operational use. Recommendations for Resource ManagersSystems analysis can help evaluate contingency containment plans. A contingency plan will provide the greatest benefit when fireline breaching risk is high. It is often efficient to strategically locate contingency lines to back up primary lines with high breaching probabilities. A good contingency plan may help lower fire loss and save suppression effort under many fireline breaching scenarios. Data collection and synchronization are important in supporting future advances in fire containment decisions.