Open AccessEstimation of the demand for construction aggregate
Author(s) -
Smith Gary
Publication year - 2017
Publication title -
natural resource modeling
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.28
H-Index - 32
eISSN - 1939-7445
pISSN - 0890-8575
DOI - 10.1111/nrm.12144
Subject(s) - per capita , zoning , aggregate (composite) , consumption (sociology) , estimation , aggregate expenditure , economics , aggregate demand , econometrics , population , government (linguistics) , agricultural economics , macroeconomics , engineering , civil engineering , monetary policy , materials science , management , composite material , social science , linguistics , demography , philosophy , sociology
Quarry operators and government officials often forecast the long‐run demand for construction aggregate by multiplying the projected population each year by a per capita consumption number, and adding up these annual demand forecasts. This approach is theoretically unjustified and empirically inaccurate. An alternative approach is to estimate the demand for aggregate from the bottom up, based on forecasts of the construction and maintenance of homes, schools, highways, and other projects that use aggregate. Summary for Managers The long‐run demand for construction aggregate is often forecast using a constant per capita consumption model. However, this model is fatally flawed, both theoretically and empirically, and should not be used for permitting, planning, or land‐use zoning.