Open AccessMODELING AND FORECASTING MONTHLY AVERAGE WATER LEVELS BASED ON THE ELLIPTIC ORBIT MODEL
Author(s) -
YANG ZONGCHANG
Publication year - 2015
Publication title -
natural resource modeling
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.28
H-Index - 32
eISSN - 1939-7445
pISSN - 0890-8575
DOI - 10.1111/nrm.12059
Subject(s) - yangtze river , water level , environmental science , series (stratigraphy) , polar , orbit (dynamics) , meteorology , china , climatology , time series , mathematics , statistics , geography , physics , geology , engineering , aerospace engineering , paleontology , cartography , archaeology , astronomy
Evaluation and forecasting of water‐level fluctuation for one river is of increasing importance since it is intimately associated with human welfare and socioeconomic sustainability development. In this study, it is found that time series of monthly water‐level fluctuation exhibits annual cyclical variation. Then with annual periodic extension for monthly water‐level fluctuation, the so‐called “elliptic orbit model” is proposed for describing monthly water‐level fluctuation by mapping its time series into the polar coordinates. Experiments and result analysis indicate potentiality of the proposed method that it yields satisfying results in evaluating and forecasting monthly water‐level fluctuation at the monitoring stations in the Yangtze River of China. It is shown that the monthly water‐level fluctuation is well described by the proposed elliptic orbit model, which offers a vivid approach for modeling and forecasting monthly water‐level fluctuation in a concise and intuitive way.