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Climate refugia: joint inference from fossil records, species distribution models and phylogeography
Author(s) -
Gavin Daniel G.,
Fitzpatrick Matthew C.,
Gugger Paul F.,
Heath Katy D.,
RodríguezSánchez Francisco,
Dobrowski Solomon Z.,
Hampe Arndt,
Hu Feng Sheng,
Ashcroft Michael B.,
Bartlein Patrick J.,
Blois Jessica L.,
Carstens Bryan C.,
Davis Edward B.,
Lafontaine Guillaume,
Edwards Mary E.,
Fernandez Matias,
Henne Paul D.,
Herring Erin M.,
Holden Zachary A.,
Kong Wooseok,
Liu Jianquan,
Magri Donatella,
Matzke Nicholas J.,
McGlone Matt S.,
Saltré Frédérik,
Stigall Alycia L.,
Tsai YiHsin Erica,
Williams John W.
Publication year - 2014
Publication title -
new phytologist
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 3.742
H-Index - 244
eISSN - 1469-8137
pISSN - 0028-646X
DOI - 10.1111/nph.12929
Subject(s) - climate change , ecology , phylogeography , biodiversity , species distribution , taxon , geography , biology , habitat , phylogenetics , biochemistry , gene
Summary Climate refugia, locations where taxa survive periods of regionally adverse climate, are thought to be critical for maintaining biodiversity through the glacial–interglacial climate changes of the Q uaternary. A critical research need is to better integrate and reconcile the three major lines of evidence used to infer the existence of past refugia – fossil records, species distribution models and phylogeographic surveys – in order to characterize the complex spatiotemporal trajectories of species and populations in and out of refugia. Here we review the complementary strengths, limitations and new advances for these three approaches. We provide case studies to illustrate their combined application, and point the way towards new opportunities for synthesizing these disparate lines of evidence. Case studies with E uropean beech, Q inghai spruce and D ouglas‐fir illustrate how the combination of these three approaches successfully resolves complex species histories not attainable from any one approach. Promising new statistical techniques can capitalize on the strengths of each method and provide a robust quantitative reconstruction of species history. Studying past refugia can help identify contemporary refugia and clarify their conservation significance, in particular by elucidating the fine‐scale processes and the particular geographic locations that buffer species against rapidly changing climate.ContentsSummary 38 I. Climate refugia: biogeographical and conservation significance 38 II. Approaches for reconstructing refugia: strengths, limitations and recent advances 39 III. Climate refugia of the past: three case studies 46 IV. New integrative approaches to reconstructing refugia 47 V. How can historical refugia inform us about future refugia? 48 VI. Concluding thoughts 49Acknowledgements 49References 49