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Between the sword and the wall: S pain's limited options for C atalan secessionism
Author(s) -
Griffiths Ryan D.,
Guillen Alvarez Pablo,
Martinez i Coma Ferran
Publication year - 2015
Publication title -
nations and nationalism
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.655
H-Index - 44
eISSN - 1469-8129
pISSN - 1354-5078
DOI - 10.1111/nana.12102
Subject(s) - independence (probability theory) , insolvency , sword , de facto , debt , political science , economics , business , law , finance , computer science , mathematics , statistics , operating system
Abstract We propose a game theoretical model to assess the capacity of C atalonia to become a recognised, independent country with at least a de facto E uropean U nion ( EU ) membership. Support for C atalan independence has been increasing for reasons pertaining to identity and economics. S pain can avoid a vote for independence by effectively ‘buying‐out’ a proportion of the C atalan electorate with a funding agreement favourable to C atalonia. If, given the current economic circumstances, the buying‐out strategy is too expensive, a pro‐independence vote is likely to pass. Our model predicts an agreement in which S pain and the EU accommodate C atalan independence in exchange for C atalonia taking a share of the S panish debt. If S pain and the EU do not accommodate, S pain becomes insolvent, which in turn destabilises the EU . The current economic woes of S pain and the EU both contribute to the desire for C atalan independence and make it possible.