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Impact of climate change on vector transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi ( C hagas, 1909) in N orth A merica
Author(s) -
CARMONACASTRO O.,
MOOLLANES D. A.,
RAMSEY J. M.
Publication year - 2018
Publication title -
medical and veterinary entomology
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.028
H-Index - 82
eISSN - 1365-2915
pISSN - 0269-283X
DOI - 10.1111/mve.12269
Subject(s) - biology , niche , ecological niche , environmental niche modelling , range (aeronautics) , species distribution , climate change , trypanosoma cruzi , ecology , latitude , habitat , parasite hosting , geography , materials science , world wide web , computer science , geodesy , composite material
Climate change can influence the geographical range of the ecological niche of pathogens by altering biotic interactions with vectors and reservoirs. The distributions of 20 epidemiologically important triatomine species in North America were modelled, comparing the genetic algorithm for rule‐set prediction ( GARP) and maximum entropy (M ax E nt), with or without topographical variables. Potential shifts in transmission niche for Trypanosoma cruzi (Trypanosomatida: Trypanosomatidae) (Chagas, 1909) were analysed for 2050 and 2070 in Representative Concentration Pathway ( RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5. There were no significant quantitative range differences between the GARP and M ax E nt models, but GARP models best represented known distributions for most species [partial‐receiver operating characteristic (ROC) > 1]; elevation was an important variable contributing to the ecological niche model ( ENM) . There was little difference between niche breadth projections for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5; the majority of species shifted significantly in both periods. Those species with the greatest current distribution range are expected to have the greatest shifts. Positional changes in the centroid, although reduced for most species, were associated with latitude. A significant increase or decrease in mean niche elevation is expected principally for N eotropical 1 species. The impact of climate change will be specific to each species, its biogeographical region and its latitude. N orth A merican triatomines with the greatest current distribution ranges ( N earctic 2 and N earctic/ N eotropical) will have the greatest future distribution shifts. Significant shifts (increases or decreases) in mean elevation over time are projected principally for the N eotropical species with the broadest current distributions. Changes in the vector exposure threat to the human population were significant for both future periods, with a 1.48% increase for urban populations and a 1.76% increase for rural populations in 2050.