Modeling evacuation route choices under influence of variable message signs

Abstract This work develops a novel methodology for investigating dynamic evacuation route switching behavior and its influence on evacuation traffic assignment considering evacuees’ intuitionistic fuzzy perception and cognition of multitype multiattribute real‐time variable message sign (VMS) information. The methodology has three distinctive features. First, a link‐based VMS information utility model is developed. Second, two link‐specific dynamic escape speed models (DESMs), characterized by VMS information, evacuee attributes, and hazard‐related information, are proposed. Third, VMS information characteristics and the intuitionistic fuzzy method are integrated into route choice behavior models. The link‐specific DESMs are used to adjust the reactive DYNASTOCH algorithm to simulate emergency traffic evacuation. Results demonstrate that the proposed models are effective in characterizing not only dynamic evacuation route switching behavior (microscopic) but also network‐wide evacuation traffic performances (macro) under behavioral and information uncertainties.