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On the occurrence of false positives in tests of migration under an isolation‐with‐migration model
Author(s) -
Hey Jody,
Chung Yujin,
Sethuraman Arun
Publication year - 2015
Publication title -
molecular ecology
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.619
H-Index - 225
eISSN - 1365-294X
pISSN - 0962-1083
DOI - 10.1111/mec.13381
Subject(s) - biology , divergence (linguistics) , false positive paradox , null hypothesis , likelihood ratio test , bayesian probability , marginal likelihood , statistical hypothesis testing , evolutionary biology , statistics , population , alternative hypothesis , econometrics , computational biology , mathematics , demography , philosophy , linguistics , sociology
The population genetic study of divergence is often carried out using a Bayesian genealogy sampler, like those implemented in ima2 and related programs, and these analyses frequently include a likelihood ratio test of the null hypothesis of no migration between populations. Cruickshank and Hahn (2014, Molecular Ecology, 23, 3133–3157) recently reported a high rate of false‐positive test results with ima2 for data simulated with small numbers of loci under models with no migration and recent splitting times. We confirm these findings and discover that they are caused by a failure of the assumptions underlying likelihood ratio tests that arises when using marginal likelihoods for a subset of model parameters. We also show that for small data sets, with little divergence between samples from two populations, an excellent fit can often be found by a model with a low migration rate and recent splitting time and a model with a high migration rate and a deep splitting time.