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EMPLOYMENT AND THE BUSINESS CYCLE
Author(s) -
CHAUVET MARCELLE,
PIGER JEREMY
Publication year - 2013
Publication title -
the manchester school
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.361
H-Index - 42
eISSN - 1467-9957
pISSN - 1463-6786
DOI - 10.1111/manc.12026
Subject(s) - recession , business cycle , payroll , economics , yield (engineering) , identification (biology) , macroeconomics , labour economics , keynesian economics , accounting , materials science , botany , biology , metallurgy
This paper investigates the differences in the cyclical dynamics in employment on non‐agricultural payroll ( ENAP ) and total civilian employment ( TCE ), and the implications for monitoring US business cycles in real time. We find that employment measures have diverged considerably around the last three recessions and subsequent recoveries. This significantly impacts identification of turning points. Models that use TCE are more in line with the N ational B ureau of E conomic R esearch ( NBER ) recession dating, and deliver faster call of troughs in real time, whereas models that include ENAP series yield delays in signaling troughs, especially the most recent ones.