The N orth of the S outh: The Geopolitical Implications of “ P acific C onsensus” in S outh A merica and the B razilian Dilemma

This article analyzes the geopolitical implications of the growing economic interdependence between the P eople's R epublic of C hina and S outh A merica, especially B razil. Presenting data on C hina's trade and investment and highlighting the advances in diplomatic bilateral cooperation during the 21st century, it focuses on two main questions: Would the C hina– S outh A merica relationship constitute a new pattern of south–south cooperation or a new type of north–south relationship? What role does B razil play in this scenario? Although C hina stimulates S outh A merican economic growth, what are the geopolitical implications for B razil, as a regional power, in two specific strategic points: as an industrialized country affected by the competition of C hinese products and as a leader of the S outh A merican integration process with The S outhern M arket ( M ercosur) and the U nion of S outh A merican N ations ( UNASUR )? Our hypothesis is that the evolution and dynamics of this relationship are more akin to a center–periphery standard, with special characteristics, which we call P acific C onsensus. A second hypothesis is that, although the growing economic penetration of C hina in the Southern Hemisphere benefits macroeconomic indicators and economic growth, it challenges the B razilian strategic geopolitical position, creating a complex dilemma.