Premium
Projected future distribution of dentists in Japan
Author(s) -
Ishimaru Miho,
Ono Sachiko,
Yasunaga Hideo,
Matsui Hiroki,
Koike Soichi
Publication year - 2016
Publication title -
journal of public health dentistry
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.64
H-Index - 63
eISSN - 1752-7325
pISSN - 0022-4006
DOI - 10.1111/jphd.12143
Subject(s) - medicine , cohort , distribution (mathematics) , population , workforce , family medicine , demography , environmental health , mathematics , political science , mathematical analysis , sociology , law
Objectives Appropriate health policies for the supply of dentists have been an ongoing issue in many developed countries. The purpose of this study was to estimate the future distribution of dentists with different working statuses in Japan and to discuss policy implications about the supply of dentists in any country. Methods This was a retrospective cohort study using data from the National Survey of Physicians, Dentists and Pharmacists for 1972–2012. Based on data from the 2010 and 2012 surveys, we calculated by means of a Markov model the future number of dentists with different working statuses until 2042 according to sex. Results We estimated that the total number of active dentists will decrease from 2012 to 2042. The number of active dentists per 1,000 population was predicted to reach a peak in 2018, decrease by 4.2% from 2012 to 2038, and thereafter slightly increase. With regard to working status, the number of dentists with their own practices per 1,000 people was predicted to have reached a peak in 2014 and decrease by 22.0% until 2042. We estimated that the number of dentists used in dental clinics per 1,000 population will increase continuously between 2012 and 2042 by 20.0%. Conclusions Our study suggests that maintaining this supply of dentists may lead to maldistribution of their working status in the future.