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Looking for Japan's missing third baby boom
Author(s) -
Baba Sachiko,
Goto Aya,
Reich Michael R.
Publication year - 2018
Publication title -
journal of obstetrics and gynaecology research
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.597
H-Index - 50
eISSN - 1447-0756
pISSN - 1341-8076
DOI - 10.1111/jog.13491
Subject(s) - baby boom , baby boomers , medicine , fertility , demography , abortion , birth rate , total fertility rate , cohort , live birth , population , pregnancy , cohort study , family planning , research methodology , demographic economics , environmental health , economics , sociology , biology , genetics , pathology
Aim High‐income countries are now experiencing a decline in fertility. After experiencing baby booms in 1947–1949 and 1971–1974, Japan's population has been decreasing since 2015. In an attempt to predict the next baby boom, we searched for any upward demographic trends occurring after 1974. Methods We analyzed time trends of the numbers and rates of live births, stillbirths and induced abortions using Japanese government data from 1975 to 2014. We then selected two birth cohorts: the first baby boomers who were 0–4 years old in 1950, and the second baby boomers who were 0–4 years old in 1975, and analyzed their rates of live births, stillbirths, and abortions by five‐year age groups. Results There was no upswing in the numbers of births, stillbirths, or induced abortions; however, the abortion rate increased during 1996–2002. Compared with the first baby boomer cohort, the second baby boomer cohort had half the peak live birth rate for the same age group (25–29 years old), and half the peak rate of abortions, with a shift toward a younger age group (20–24). Conclusions This analysis of Japanese fertility trends derived from all pregnancy outcomes showed no upward trend in fertility in Japan since 1974.