Poor reproductive success of Gray Vireos in a declining California population

Abstract Since the 1940s, populations of Gray Vireos ( Vireo vicinior ) in California have collapsed, presumably because of parasitism by Brown‐headed Cowbirds ( Molothrus ater ). In 2012 and 2013, we studied the vireo's nesting ecology to assess factors affecting two of California's largest remaining populations in the chaparral of San Diego County. Nest success was extremely low, with a model‐averaged probability of nest survival of only 0.08 ( N  =   95). More nest failures were due to predation (83%) than to cowbird parasitism (13%). Video‐recording at 30 nests revealed that California Scrub‐Jays ( Aphelocoma californica ) were the most common nest predator (67%). Of eight variables tested, height of shrubs surrounding the nest had the strongest negative influence on nest survival, but was more strongly correlated with cowbird parasitism than with jay predation. Despite frequent renesting, seasonal productivity was well below the level required to sustain a population, especially in northern San Diego County where we found no Gray Vireos at six of seven sites where they had been present from 1997 to 2001 and where cowbird parasitism was more frequent. The vireo's continuing range collapse contrasts with recent climate‐change models predicting a range expansion, highlighting the importance of demographic studies. Low nest success is likely contributing to population declines in California, and the additive effect of cowbird parasitism suppresses productivity. Conservation of Gray Vireos in California will likely require development of alternative approaches to cowbird and scrub‐jay control appropriate to sites widely scattered in rugged chaparral.