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What Drives Anomaly Returns?
Author(s) -
LOCHSTOER LARS A.,
TETLOCK PAUL C.
Publication year - 2020
Publication title -
the journal of finance
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 18.151
H-Index - 299
eISSN - 1540-6261
pISSN - 0022-1082
DOI - 10.1111/jofi.12876
Subject(s) - cash flow , economics , econometrics , stochastic discount factor , anomaly (physics) , portfolio , uncorrelated , financial economics , capital asset pricing model , monetary economics , mathematics , finance , statistics , physics , condensed matter physics
ABSTRACT We decompose the returns of five well‐known anomalies into cash flow and discount rate news. Common patterns emerge across the five factor portfolios and their mean‐variance efficient (MVE) combination. Whereas discount rate news predominates in market returns, systematic cash flow news drives the returns of anomaly portfolios and their MVE combination with the market portfolio. Anomaly cash flow and discount rate shocks are largely uncorrelated with market cash flow and discount rate shocks and with business cycle fluctuations. These rich empirical patterns restrict the joint dynamics of firm cash flows and the pricing kernel, thereby informing models of stocks' expected returns.