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Volatility‐Managed Portfolios
Author(s) -
MOREIRA ALAN,
MUIR TYLER
Publication year - 2017
Publication title -
the journal of finance
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 18.151
H-Index - 299
eISSN - 1540-6261
pISSN - 0022-1082
DOI - 10.1111/jofi.12513
Subject(s) - sharpe ratio , volatility (finance) , economics , econometrics , volatility risk premium , financial economics , currency , volatility risk , equity (law) , forward volatility , stochastic volatility , monetary economics , portfolio , political science , law
Managed portfolios that take less risk when volatility is high produce large alphas, increase Sharpe ratios, and produce large utility gains for mean‐variance investors. We document this for the market, value, momentum, profitability, return on equity, investment, and betting‐against‐beta factors, as well as the currency carry trade. Volatility timing increases Sharpe ratios because changes in volatility are not offset by proportional changes in expected returns. Our strategy is contrary to conventional wisdom because it takes relatively less risk in recessions. This rules out typical risk‐based explanations and is a challenge to structural models of time‐varying expected returns.