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The Pre‐FOMC Announcement Drift
Author(s) -
LUCCA DAVID O.,
MOENCH EMANUEL
Publication year - 2015
Publication title -
the journal of finance
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 18.151
H-Index - 299
eISSN - 1540-6261
pISSN - 0022-1082
DOI - 10.1111/jofi.12196
Subject(s) - economics , treasury , open market operation , futures contract , equity (law) , monetary economics , stock (firearms) , monetary policy , financial economics , capital asset pricing model , volatility (finance) , mechanical engineering , archaeology , political science , law , history , engineering
We document large average excess returns on U.S. equities in anticipation of monetary policy decisions made at scheduled meetings of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) in the past few decades. These pre‐FOMC returns have increased over time and account for sizable fractions of total annual realized stock returns. While other major international equity indices experienced similar pre‐FOMC returns, we find no such effect in U.S. Treasury securities and money market futures. Other major U.S. macroeconomic news announcements also do not give rise to preannouncement excess equity returns. We discuss challenges in explaining these returns with standard asset pricing theory.