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Biased Beliefs, Asset Prices, and Investment: A Structural Approach
Author(s) -
ALTI AYDOĞAN,
TETLOCK PAUL C.
Publication year - 2014
Publication title -
the journal of finance
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 18.151
H-Index - 299
eISSN - 1540-6261
pISSN - 0022-1082
DOI - 10.1111/jofi.12089
Subject(s) - overconfidence effect , predictability , economics , asset (computer security) , investment (military) , capital asset pricing model , econometrics , productivity , financial economics , microeconomics , monetary economics , macroeconomics , psychology , social psychology , physics , computer security , quantum mechanics , politics , computer science , political science , law
We structurally estimate a model in which agents’ information processing biases can cause predictability in firms’ asset returns and investment inefficiencies. We generalize the neoclassical investment model by allowing for two biases—overconfidence and overextrapolation of trends—that distort agents’ expectations of firm productivity. Our model's predictions closely match empirical data on asset pricing and firm behavior. The estimated bias parameters are well identified and exhibit plausible magnitudes. Alternative models without either bias or with efficient investment fail to match observed return predictability and firm behavior. These results suggest that biases affect firm behavior, which in turn affects return anomalies.