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MELD‐XI is predictive of mortality in venoarterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation
Author(s) -
Ayers Brian,
Wood Katherine,
Melvin Amber,
Prasad Sunil,
Gosev Igor
Publication year - 2020
Publication title -
journal of cardiac surgery
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.428
H-Index - 58
eISSN - 1540-8191
pISSN - 0886-0440
DOI - 10.1111/jocs.14578
Subject(s) - extracorporeal membrane oxygenation , medicine , cardiology , intensive care medicine
Background Venoarterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (VA‐ECMO) is a life‐saving method of supporting critically ill patients. However, it is expensive and associated with high morbidity and mortality, making early predictive outcome modeling extremely valuable. The model for end‐stage liver disease‐excluding international normalized ratio (MELD‐XI) scoring system has been shown to have prognostic value in other critically ill patient populations. Materials and Methods A single‐center retrospective review was performed for all adult patients managed on VA‐ECMO from May 2011 to January 2018 (n = 247). Patients were included in the study if MELD‐XI scores could be calculated during the first 48 hours on ECMO (n = 187). Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was performed for MELD‐XI in regard to in‐hospital mortality. Results Of the 187 patients, 74 (40%) patients had MELD‐XI less than 14 (low‐risk) and 113 (60%) had a MELD‐XI of 14 or greater (high‐risk). The cohorts did not differ significantly in terms of patient characteristics or indication for ECMO. The high‐risk MELD‐XI group had significantly greater mortality during index hospitalization compared to the low‐risk group (74% vs 39%; P < .0001). Quartile stratification demonstrated progressively worse prognosis associated with higher MELD‐XI scores; the fourth quartile showed a ninefold increased risk of mortality compared to the first quartile ( P < .001). The AUC for predicting index hospitalization mortality was 0.69 (95% CI, 0.62‐0.77) with a Youden index ( J ) of 0.36 and optimized cutoff of 12.98. Conclusions These findings suggest that the MELD‐XI scoring system can be applied to the VA‐ECMO patient population early in their course of ECMO as a prognostic tool to aid in complex clinical decision making.