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Economic Literacy and Inflation Expectations: Evidence from a Laboratory Experiment
Author(s) -
BURKE MARY A.,
MANZ MICHAEL
Publication year - 2014
Publication title -
journal of money, credit and banking
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.763
H-Index - 108
eISSN - 1538-4616
pISSN - 0022-2879
DOI - 10.1111/jmcb.12144
Subject(s) - inflation (cosmology) , literacy , information literacy , percentile , economics , econometrics , survey data collection , standard deviation , psychology , statistics , economic growth , mathematics , pedagogy , physics , theoretical physics
We present experimental evidence of a link between economic literacy and inflation forecast accuracy. The experiment investigates two channels through which economic literacy may enable better forecasts: (i) choice of information and (ii) use of information. More literate subjects choose more relevant information and use the given information more effectively. Starting from a 10th percentile score, the boost in literacy from taking an economics course predicts a 0.64 standard deviation decline in mean absolute forecasting error. Our findings suggest that a significant portion of demographic heterogeneity in inflation expectations—observed in survey data—may be driven by heterogeneity in economic literacy.