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Forecasting Replacement Demand of Durable Goods and the Induced Secondary Material Flows: A Case Study of Automobiles
Author(s) -
Kagawa Shigemi,
Nakamura Shinichiro,
Kondo Yasushi,
Matsubae Kazuyo,
Nagasaka Tetsuya
Publication year - 2015
Publication title -
journal of industrial ecology
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.377
H-Index - 102
eISSN - 1530-9290
pISSN - 1088-1980
DOI - 10.1111/jiec.12184
Subject(s) - volume (thermodynamics) , consumption (sociology) , material flow analysis , product (mathematics) , industrial ecology , durable good , distribution (mathematics) , environmental economics , business , computer science , operations management , environmental science , waste management , economics , sustainability , engineering , microeconomics , mathematics , ecology , social science , mathematical analysis , physics , geometry , quantum mechanics , sociology , biology
Summary The aim of this article is to propose a method for forecasting future secondary material flows by combining a product lifetime distribution analysis with a waste input‐output analysis and present a simple case study of automobiles. The case study demonstrates that the proposed method enables us to estimate replacement demand of new vehicles, number of end‐of‐life (EOL) vehicles arising from the aging of vehicles, volume of shredder scraps recovered from EOL vehicles, and volume of shredder scraps required to meet final consumption in the future.