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A model to predict the onset of non‐alcoholic fatty liver disease within 2 years in elderly adults
Author(s) -
Lin YaJie,
Gao XiMei,
Pan WeiWei,
Gao Shuai,
Yu ZhenZhen,
Xu Ping,
Fan XiaoPeng
Publication year - 2017
Publication title -
journal of gastroenterology and hepatology
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.214
H-Index - 130
eISSN - 1440-1746
pISSN - 0815-9319
DOI - 10.1111/jgh.13760
Subject(s) - medicine , fatty liver , cirrhosis , body mass index , hepatocellular carcinoma , gastroenterology , disease
Background and Aim Non‐alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a common cause of chronic hepatitis, which leads to cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma. However, it is difficult to identify subjects at high risk for NAFLD onset. This study aims to construct a model to predict the onset of NAFLD within 2 years in elderly adults. Methods This study included and followed 3378 initial NAFLD‐free subjects aged 60 years or over for 2 years, which were randomly divided into a training set and a validation set. NAFLD was diagnosed on ultrasound. Clinical and laboratory data were recorded at baseline. A model was constructed in the training set to predict the onset of NAFLD and validated in the validation set. Results Body mass index, hemoglobin, fasting blood glucose, and triglycerides were identified as predictors for the onset of NAFLD. A risk score (R) was calculated by them. It classified the subjects into low‐risk group (R ≤ −2.88), moderate‐risk group (−2.88 < R ≤ −1.26), and high‐risk group (R > −1.26). In the training set, 4.68% of the participants in the low‐risk group, 11.59% of the participants in the moderate‐risk group, and 31.02% of the participants in the high‐risk group developed NAFLD. In the validation set, 5.84% of the participants in the low‐risk group, 10.57% of the participants in the moderate‐risk group, and 29.44% of the participants in the high‐risk group developed NAFLD. Conclusions This study developed a model to predict the onset of NAFLD in elderly adults, which might provide indications for intervention to these subjects.