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Risk factors and nomogram for pancreatic pseudocysts in chronic pancreatitis: A cohort of 1998 patients
Author(s) -
Hao Lu,
Pan Jun,
Wang Dan,
Bi YaWei,
Ji JunTao,
Xin Lei,
Liao Zhuan,
Du TingTing,
Lin JinHuan,
Zhang Di,
Zeng XiangPeng,
Ye Bo,
Zou WenBin,
Chen Hui,
Xie Ting,
Li BaiRong,
Zheng ZhaoHong,
Hu LiangHao,
Li ZhaoShen
Publication year - 2017
Publication title -
journal of gastroenterology and hepatology
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.214
H-Index - 130
eISSN - 1440-1746
pISSN - 0815-9319
DOI - 10.1111/jgh.13748
Subject(s) - medicine , pancreatitis , nomogram , pancreatic pseudocyst , cohort , pancreatitis, chronic , gastroenterology , pancreatic disease , complication , pancreas
Background and Aim Pancreatic pseudocyst is a common complication of chronic pancreatitis. The identification of risk factors and development of a nomogram for pancreatic pseudocysts in chronic pancreatitis patients may contribute to the early diagnosis and intervention of pancreatic pseudocysts. Methods Patients with chronic pancreatitis admitted to our center from January 2000 to December 2013 were enrolled. Cumulative rates of pancreatic pseudocysts after the onset of chronic pancreatitis and after the diagnosis of chronic pancreatitis were calculated. Patients were randomly assigned, in a 2:1 ratio, to the training and validation cohort. Based on the training cohort, risk factors were identified through Cox proportional hazards regression model, and nomogram was developed. Internal and external validations were performed based on the training and validation cohort, respectively. Results With a total of 1998 patients, pancreatic pseudocysts were detected in 228 (11.41%) patients. Age at the onset of chronic pancreatitis, smoking, and severe acute pancreatitis were identified risk factors for pancreatic pseudocysts development while steatorrhea and pancreatic stones were protective factors. Incorporating these five factors, the nomogram achieved good concordance indexes of 0.735 and 0.628 in the training and validation cohorts, respectively, with well‐fitted calibration curves. Conclusion The nomogram achieved an individualized prediction of pancreatic pseudocysts development in chronic pancreatitis. It may help the early diagnosis and management of pancreatic pseudocysts.