Open AccessCoupling a land surface model with a hydrodynamic model for regional flood risk assessment due to climate change: Application to the Susquehanna River near Harrisburg, Pennsylvania
Author(s) -
Modi Parthkumar A.,
Czuba Jonathan A.,
Easton Zachary M.
Publication year - 2022
Publication title -
journal of flood risk management
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.049
H-Index - 36
ISSN - 1753-318X
DOI - 10.1111/jfr3.12763
Subject(s) - flood myth , flooding (psychology) , environmental science , climate change , precipitation , storm , hydrology (agriculture) , 100 year flood , climate model , watershed , climatology , flood forecasting , hydrological modelling , meteorology , geography , geology , psychology , oceanography , geotechnical engineering , archaeology , machine learning , computer science , psychotherapist
An increase in heavy precipitation associated with climate change has exacerbated flooding in the Eastern U.S. To assess regional flood risk with changing climatic conditions, we demonstrate the application of a novel hydrologic modeling framework that integrates climate projections with a coupled Noah‐MP land surface model and a two‐dimensional HEC‐RAS hydrodynamic model. We employ this framework along a 41 km reach of the Susquehanna River near Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, where recent flood damages exceeded $2 billion (2011 Irene and Lee floods). Historical and future 30‐year and 100‐year peak‐discharge estimates were compared to assess how flood risk might be altered due to climate change. Results indicate that precipitation increases from climate change do not always lead to increases in flood risk, because interplay of hydrological components in the watershed, which are considered by Noah‐MP, largely controls flooding severity. However, climate change is expected to increase the severity of extreme events; if a 50‐year flood (the recurrence interval of Tropical Storm Lee) occurred toward the end of the 21st century in the worst‐case emission scenario, then flood volume would increase by 40% and flood extent by 15%, due to an increase in soil moisture from a wetter overall climate.