Open AccessEvaluation of flood risk reduction strategies through combinations of interventions
Author(s) -
Berchum Erik C.,
Mobley William,
Jonkman Sebastiaan N.,
Timmermans Jos S.,
Kwakkel Jan H.,
Brody Samuel D.
Publication year - 2019
Publication title -
journal of flood risk management
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.049
H-Index - 36
ISSN - 1753-318X
DOI - 10.1111/jfr3.12506
Subject(s) - flood myth , interdependence , flooding (psychology) , flood risk management , psychological intervention , risk analysis (engineering) , computer science , probabilistic logic , conceptual model , reduction (mathematics) , environmental science , environmental resource management , operations research , environmental planning , business , engineering , geography , mathematics , psychology , geometry , archaeology , database , artificial intelligence , psychiatry , political science , law , psychotherapist
Large, complex coastal regions often require a combination of interventions to lower the risk of flooding to an acceptable level. In practice, a limited number of strategies are considered and interdependencies between interventions are often simplified. This paper presents the Multiple Lines of Defence Optimization System (MODOS)‐model. This quick, probabilistic model simulates and evaluates the impact of many flood risk reduction strategies while accounting for interdependencies amongst measures. The simulation includes hydraulic calculations, damage calculations, and the effects of measures for various return periods. The application and potential of this model is shown with a conceptual and simplified case study, based on the Houston‐Galveston Bay area. The analyses demonstrate how the MODOS‐model identifies trade‐offs within the system and shows how flood risk, cost, and impact respond to flood management decisions. This improved understanding of the impact of design and planning choices can benefit the discussions in finding the optimal flood risk reduction strategy for coastal regions.