Open AccessAssessment of the flood hazard arising from land use change in a forested catchment in northern Iran
Author(s) -
Hajian F.,
Dykes A. P.,
Cavanagh S.
Publication year - 2019
Publication title -
journal of flood risk management
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.049
H-Index - 36
ISSN - 1753-318X
DOI - 10.1111/jfr3.12481
Subject(s) - environmental science , surface runoff , flood myth , hydrology (agriculture) , deforestation (computer science) , runoff curve number , land use, land use change and forestry , climate change , land use , drainage basin , flooding (psychology) , hydrograph , rangeland , geography , agroforestry , geology , ecology , geotechnical engineering , cartography , archaeology , biology , psychology , oceanography , computer science , psychotherapist , programming language
The provinces of northern Iran that border the Caspian Sea are forested and may be prone to increased risks of flooding due to deforestation and other land use changes, in addition to climate change effects. This research investigated changes in runoff from a small forested catchment in northern Iran for several land use change scenarios and the effects of higher rainfall and high antecedent soil moisture. Peak discharges and total runoff volumes from the catchment were estimated using the U.S. Soil Conservation Service “Curve Number” (SCS‐CN) method and the SCS dimensionless unit hydrograph. This method was selected for reasons of data availability and operational simplicity for flood managers. A geographical information system (GIS) was used to manipulate spatial data for use in the catchment runoff modelling. The results show that runoff is predicted to increase as a result of deforestation, which is dependent on the proportion of the catchment area affected. However, climate change presents a significant flood hazard even in the absence of deforestation. Other land use changes may reduce the peak discharges of all return period floods. Therefore a future ban on timber extraction, combined with agricultural utilisation of rangeland, could prove effective as “nature‐based” flood reduction measures throughout northern Iran.