Open AccessFuture fluvial flood risks in C entral V ietnam assessed using global super‐high‐resolution climate model output
Author(s) -
Nam D.H.,
Udo K.,
Mano A.
Publication year - 2015
Publication title -
journal of flood risk management
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.049
H-Index - 36
ISSN - 1753-318X
DOI - 10.1111/jfr3.12096
Subject(s) - flood myth , return period , environmental science , fluvial , climate change , greenhouse gas , hydrology (agriculture) , storm , climate model , 100 year flood , climatology , meteorology , geology , geography , structural basin , geomorphology , oceanography , geotechnical engineering , archaeology
Fluvial flood risks are explored at the V u G ia– T hu B on R iver system in C entral V ietnam based on a coupled hydrological–hydraulic model combined with design storm hyetographs constructed based on heavy rainfall downscaled from the output of a state‐of‐the‐art super‐high‐resolution (20‐km mesh) global climate model simulated under greenhouse gas emission scenario A1B . The results indicate that intensified rainfall due to future climate changes (2075–2099) will lead to higher flood risks in the fluvial plains, especially in the lower areas of the river system. The potential extent of inundation caused by a 25‐year return period flood in future climate patterns will increase by approximately 150% compared with those produced by the most severe flood in the present‐day climate (1979–2003). Moreover, the flood risks induced by a 10‐year return period flood tend to be slightly more severe than that of the 25‐year return period in the present‐day climate.