Open AccessHydrological analysis for water level projections in T aihu L ake, C hina
Author(s) -
Liu L.,
Xu Z.X.,
Reynard N.S.,
Hu C.W.,
Jones R.G.
Publication year - 2013
Publication title -
journal of flood risk management
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.049
H-Index - 36
ISSN - 1753-318X
DOI - 10.1111/jfr3.12015
Subject(s) - flood myth , environmental science , baseline (sea) , flooding (psychology) , precipitation , climate change , storm , hydrology (agriculture) , current (fluid) , meteorology , geography , ecology , geology , biology , psychology , oceanography , geotechnical engineering , archaeology , psychotherapist
Changes in precipitation can be expected to have a major influence on the frequency and severity of flooding in the T aihu B asin. As part of an integrated assessment of flood risk in the T aihu B asin, this paper addresses the hydrological conditions and the potential impacts of climate change on T aihu L ake water levels. The hydrological system is simulated by using the distributed hydrological model VIC ( V ariable I nfiltration C apacity), with future climate scenarios generated by the regional climate model PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies). The results indicate that maximum and mean flood water levels under the A 2 and B 2 scenarios for 2021–2050 will be higher than the levels during the baseline period (1961–1990), with larger increases under the B 2 scenario than for the A 2 scenario. The storm return periods leading to extreme water levels in the T aihu L ake in the future is projected to decrease significantly in comparison to the baseline period, implying the potential for the more frequent occurrence of major floods. These results indicate the importance of planning for future flood control in the T aihu B asin.