Open AccessQuantifying the uncertainty in the S oil C onservation S ervice flood hydrographs: a case study in the A zores I slands
Author(s) -
Leandro J.,
Leitão J.P.,
Lima J.L.M.P.
Publication year - 2013
Publication title -
journal of flood risk management
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.049
H-Index - 36
ISSN - 1753-318X
DOI - 10.1111/jfr3.12010
Subject(s) - hydrograph , flooding (psychology) , flash flood , flood myth , environmental science , mathematics , statistics , geography , psychology , archaeology , psychotherapist
Flash flooding is characterised by a rapid flooding phenomenon caused by intense rainfall. Despite being an extreme event with high uncertainty, the rainfall‐run‐off process is often regarded as deterministic (rather than stochastic). In this paper, the S oil C onservation S ervice ( SCS ) flood hydrograph uncertainty is quantified based on the T otal E rror F ramework ( TEF ), and introduced into the model by applying perturbation in the input data and model parameters. The random perturbation component is stochastically modelled. A sensitivity analysis was carried out on the stochastic model parameters, using a real case study in the A zores ( P ortugal). The results showed that the flood hydrograph uncertainty varies over time, with its largest deviations occurring at the beginning of the flooding because of the uncertainty associated with the SCS method curve number parameter (correlation coefficient R 2 of 0.86). Rainfall uncertainty was responsible for the uncertainty in the hydrograph peaks' magnitude ( R 2 = 0.93) while uncertainty in the propagation velocity was responsible for the uncertainty in the peaks' time ( R 2 = 0.97).