Open AccessEstimating T ‐year flood confidence intervals of rivers in Ç oruh basin, T urkey
Author(s) -
Can İ.,
Tosunoğlu F.
Publication year - 2013
Publication title -
journal of flood risk management
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.049
H-Index - 36
ISSN - 1753-318X
DOI - 10.1111/jfr3.12000
Subject(s) - confidence interval , statistics , log normal distribution , flood myth , goodness of fit , structural basin , environmental science , mathematics , hydrology (agriculture) , geography , geology , geomorphology , geotechnical engineering , archaeology
Abstract The aim of this study is to determine the most suitable probability distribution for estimating T ‐year flood confidence intervals of the rivers in Ç oruh basin, T urkey. For this purpose, 10 different distributions, which are widely used in hydrologic frequency analysis, were fitted to annual maximum flows of nine gauging stations located in critical parts of the basin, and parameters of these distributions were estimated using the method of maximum likelihood. In order to determine the most suitable distributions at each station, A kaike's information criterion, modified A kaike's information criterion, B ayesian information criterion, K olmogorov– S mirnov and chi‐square goodness‐of‐fit tests were applied. According to evaluations of these tests, two‐parameter lognormal, G umbel and generalised Pareto appeared to be the most suitable distributions. Then, these distributions were used for the estimation of T ‐year's flood confidence intervals (10, 20, 50, 100 and 200 years). Finally, the performances of the distributions were compared and discussed with regard to its application on the stations.