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Hierarchical analysis of wild Atlantic salmon ( Salmo salar ) fecundity in relation to body size and developmental traits
Author(s) -
Hanson Nora,
Ounsley James,
Burton Tim,
Auer Sonya,
Hunt James H.,
Shaw Brian,
Henderson Jim,
Middlemas Stuart J.
Publication year - 2020
Publication title -
journal of fish biology
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.672
H-Index - 115
eISSN - 1095-8649
pISSN - 0022-1112
DOI - 10.1111/jfb.14181
Subject(s) - salmo , fecundity , biology , spawn (biology) , bayesian probability , covariate , fishery , ecology , statistics , fish <actinopterygii> , demography , mathematics , population , sociology
Using data from wild Atlantic salmon Salmo salar returning to spawn in seven Scottish rivers, we developed a model of fecundity based on individual body size and key developmental traits. We used a novel approach to model selection which maximises predictive accuracy for application to target river stocks to select the best from a suite of Bayesian hierarchical models. This approach aims to ensure the optimal model within the candidate set includes covariates that best predict out‐of‐sample data to estimate fecundity in areas where no direct observations are available. In addition to body size, the final model included the developmental characteristics of age at smolting and years spent at sea. Using two independent long‐term monitoring datasets, the consequences of ignoring these characteristics was revealed by comparing predictions from the best model with models that omitted them.