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A B ayesian perspective on constructing a written assessment of probabilistic clinical reasoning in experienced clinicians
Author(s) -
Kreiter Clarence D.
Publication year - 2017
Publication title -
journal of evaluation in clinical practice
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.737
H-Index - 73
eISSN - 1365-2753
pISSN - 1356-1294
DOI - 10.1111/jep.12469
Subject(s) - probabilistic logic , perspective (graphical) , bayesian probability , computer science , argument (complex analysis) , artificial intelligence , machine learning , management science , medicine , economics
Rationale Decision‐making performance assessments have proven problematic for assessing clinical reasoning.Aims and Objectives A Bayesian approach to designing an advanced clinical reasoning assessment is well grounded in mathematical and cognitive theory and may offer significant psychometric advantages. Probabilistic logic plays an important role in medical problem solving, and performances on Bayesian‐type tasks appear to be causally‐related to the ability to make sound clinical decisions.Methods A validity argument is used to guide the design of an assessment of medical reasoning using clinical probabilities.Results/Conclusions The practical advantage of using a Bayesian approach to item design relates to the fact that probability theory provides a rationally optimal method for managing uncertain information and provides the criteria for objective correct answer scoring. Potential item formats are discussed.