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Increased temperature induces leaffolder outbreak in rice field
Author(s) -
Ali Md. Panna,
Kabir Mir Md. Moniruzzaman,
Afrin Sadira,
Nowrin Farzana,
Haque Sheikh Shamiul,
Haque Md. Maksudul,
Hashem Abeer,
Tabassum Baby,
Abd_Allah Elsayed Fathi,
Pittendrigh Barry Robert
Publication year - 2019
Publication title -
journal of applied entomology
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.795
H-Index - 60
eISSN - 1439-0418
pISSN - 0931-2048
DOI - 10.1111/jen.12652
Subject(s) - pest analysis , crambidae , outbreak , cnaphalocrocis medinalis , biology , population , toxicology , climate change , integrated pest management , agronomy , lepidoptera genitalia , ecology , demography , horticulture , virology , sociology
The rice leaffolder, Cnaphalocrosis medinalis Güenée (Lepidoptera: Crambidae), has emerged as a serious pest with significant outbreaks over the last decade in several rice‐growing countries, including China and Bangladesh and resulting in heavy rice yield losses. Climate changes (particularly high temperatures in late winter in Bangladesh) coincide with upsurge in outbreaks of this pest. We generated a statistical model using more than two decades of data to show that increased temperatures associate with this upsurge. Over the 22‐year model period, leaffolder populations in November increased significantly, corresponding to significant monthly temperature trends (but not rainfall) over the same period. Utilizing a linear model, we find that increasing temperature interacts with the amount of rainfall. With the variable month as a proxy for all seasonal effects affecting leaffolder abundance, the model reveals a significant correspondence with climate variations compared to average conditions; specifically, the model predicts that increasing maximum temperatures will lead to more leaffolder, while more rain will decrease their abundance. This study suggests that warmer environment contributed to recent outbreaks of leaffolder in rice‐growing countries; thus, climate change increases rice yield losses by increasing pest population in the field.