An ordinal day model of spruce beetle trap capture phenology in northern Colorado

Spruce beetle populations ( Dendroctonus rufipennis ) (Coleoptera: Scolytinae) in Engelmann spruce ( Picea engelmannii ) stands were monitored at twelve sites for 6 years in northern Colorado using pheromone‐baited Lindgren funnel traps. During the trapping period, over 30,000 beetles were captured, and beetle abundance data were used to construct empirical models of trap capture phenology based on day of year, accumulation of thermal units and thermal day thresholds, with the goal of informing future regional trapping efforts and producing a simple model for use by forest managers. Ordinal day models outperformed thermal accumulation and thermal threshold models in both predictive power and parsimony. Mean date of earliest capture was Day 153 (June 2) and ranged from Day 126 to Day 161 (May 6–June 10), and mean date of final capture was Day 243 (August 31) and ranged from Day 220 to Day 286 (August 8–October 13). A two‐parameter logistic function was the most parsimonious of several ordinal day models, accounting for 81% of the variance in cumulative trap capture across all sites and dates. The model predicts 50% of trap captures to occur by Day 181 (June 30). This model has application as a decision support tool for forest ecosystem managers concerned with the timing of trap deployment or D. rufipennis mitigation treatments.