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Statistical indicators for insects caught in the development trap
Author(s) -
Blackshaw R. P.,
Esbjerg P.
Publication year - 2018
Publication title -
journal of applied entomology
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.795
H-Index - 60
eISSN - 1439-0418
pISSN - 0931-2048
DOI - 10.1111/jen.12403
Subject(s) - overwintering , biology , trap (plumbing) , generation time , ecology , population , first generation , insect , statistics , demography , meteorology , mathematics , physics , sociology
Abstract The effects of climate change on insect phenologies are of current interest, but little attention has been given to the potential driver for population decline of increased mortality arising from the failure to reach a viable overwintering stage. We use numerical simulation modelling to show that increased mortality from a partial second generation results in the weakening of density dependence, whereas increasing mortality within the first generation does not. These general results are then compared with annual trap count data for the moth Agrotis segetum (Denis and Schiffermüller) in Denmark, a species which is in decline there because a partial second generation fails to survive the winter. Results from the moth data are consistent with those from the simulations, and we conclude that the development trap phenomenon can be detected by the application of simple statistical tests to time‐series data.