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Subjective Priors for Item Response Models: Application of Elicitation by Design
Author(s) -
Ames Allison,
Smith Elizabeth
Publication year - 2018
Publication title -
journal of educational measurement
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.917
H-Index - 47
eISSN - 1745-3984
pISSN - 0022-0655
DOI - 10.1111/jedm.12184
Subject(s) - prior probability , item response theory , markov chain monte carlo , computer science , bayesian probability , expert elicitation , bayesian statistics , statistics , bayesian inference , machine learning , artificial intelligence , mathematics , psychometrics
Bayesian methods incorporate model parameter information prior to data collection. Eliciting information from content experts is an option, but has seen little implementation in Bayesian item response theory (IRT) modeling. This study aims to use ethical reasoning content experts to elicit prior information and incorporate this information into Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) estimation. A six‐step elicitation approach is followed, with relevant details at each stage for two IRT items parameters: difficulty and guessing. Results indicate that using content experts is the preferred approach, rather than noninformative priors, for both parameter types. The use of a noninformative prior for small samples provided dramatically different results when compared to results from content expert–elicited priors. The WAMBS (When to worry and how to Avoid the Misuse of Bayesian Statistics) checklist is used to aid in comparisons.